* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 41 40 39 38 38 39 41 47 49 56 56 59 57 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 41 40 39 38 38 39 41 47 49 39 32 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 41 39 37 36 35 36 40 45 37 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 20 23 20 27 26 22 21 14 13 14 16 18 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -4 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 279 284 273 278 291 293 298 281 296 299 328 286 298 272 276 264 274 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 30.0 30.9 30.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 146 146 149 155 155 155 157 170 171 170 166 166 160 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 145 144 146 151 149 147 147 156 171 164 144 141 134 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 51 52 53 54 54 57 62 63 66 65 69 65 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -18 -25 -35 -37 -38 -57 -92 -91 -100 -70 -81 -50 -55 -16 -30 200 MB DIV 6 29 31 12 -5 8 11 5 11 7 11 24 7 17 16 35 3 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -15 -11 -11 -15 -14 -12 -15 -16 -6 0 -2 2 5 1 6 LAND (KM) 752 700 634 463 293 30 86 122 221 251 279 153 28 -24 -32 11 44 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.5 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.3 59.9 61.5 63.0 65.8 68.5 71.1 73.4 75.5 77.2 78.7 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 50 43 38 46 57 71 57 56 71 69 67 47 39 32 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -19. -18. -20. -16. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 7. 9. 16. 16. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 56.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.1% 9.0% 6.5% 5.6% 8.1% 9.2% 8.8% Logistic: 3.6% 10.3% 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 10.3% 11.3% 15.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 7.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 10.6% 5.4% 3.2% 2.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 41 40 39 38 38 39 41 47 49 39 32 34 32 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 39 38 37 36 36 37 39 45 47 37 30 32 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 34 33 32 32 33 35 41 43 33 26 28 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 28 27 27 28 30 36 38 28 21 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT