* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 41 47 52 53 53 56 58 63 67 72 77 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 41 47 52 53 53 56 58 63 67 72 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 36 36 37 38 41 44 51 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 7 7 14 21 21 21 22 20 16 16 13 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -6 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -4 1 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 30 86 225 281 280 264 280 298 293 284 293 278 279 259 249 248 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 145 146 147 148 150 153 156 154 150 146 148 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 56 56 58 60 65 70 72 70 70 73 74 71 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 14 16 17 19 20 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -31 -29 -37 -41 -27 -8 6 23 38 22 27 21 25 27 43 45 200 MB DIV 5 7 1 -6 -2 4 2 22 13 29 20 30 37 45 12 38 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 1 1 2 7 7 8 LAND (KM) 813 813 813 822 832 870 932 994 1076 1175 1297 1448 1602 1653 1760 1769 1799 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.2 167.3 167.3 167.4 167.5 167.9 168.5 169.1 169.9 170.9 172.1 173.6 175.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 43 45 48 51 53 50 43 36 29 33 45 38 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 28. 28. 31. 33. 38. 42. 47. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 167.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.9% 6.0% 2.8% 3.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##