* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 38 38 40 39 43 45 50 51 56 59 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 38 38 40 39 43 45 50 51 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 38 37 37 36 37 38 40 43 47 53 60 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 16 21 17 21 16 22 19 22 19 17 15 16 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 -1 -2 0 -5 2 -4 -1 -1 -4 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 319 295 294 298 293 305 295 311 301 312 297 317 311 325 305 289 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 30.2 30.6 30.3 29.9 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 140 141 147 150 150 149 154 159 171 171 170 166 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 139 140 145 145 144 142 145 148 159 162 153 143 135 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 55 56 55 58 59 60 61 61 64 64 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 7 6 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 47 26 7 -4 -17 -26 -41 -45 -50 -63 -90 -91 -93 -66 -61 -37 -30 200 MB DIV 15 11 6 8 6 11 -7 5 14 18 0 0 23 23 9 32 29 700-850 TADV -12 -18 -20 -11 -7 -14 -8 -14 -4 -6 -3 0 1 7 2 6 9 LAND (KM) 1114 1106 1001 899 820 674 370 115 168 157 276 328 382 375 283 263 253 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.8 53.3 54.8 56.3 59.4 62.2 64.9 67.4 69.7 71.9 73.9 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 20 28 28 47 50 52 66 66 63 77 81 74 65 51 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -23. -25. -22. -22. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -1. 3. 5. 10. 11. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 50.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.5% 9.3% 6.5% 5.7% 8.4% 9.8% 11.4% Logistic: 2.6% 9.0% 4.6% 1.3% 0.7% 3.0% 4.8% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 2.7% 8.8% 4.8% 2.6% 2.2% 3.8% 4.9% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 38 38 40 39 43 45 50 51 56 59 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 37 39 38 42 44 49 50 55 58 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 37 36 40 42 47 48 53 56 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 31 30 34 36 41 42 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT