* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 62 67 68 67 72 72 74 77 80 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 62 67 68 67 72 72 74 77 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 51 56 58 59 61 63 65 70 77 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 7 5 7 13 17 22 15 17 13 12 8 5 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -5 -7 -4 -2 -2 -1 2 3 3 4 0 2 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 22 27 6 11 206 268 258 280 269 281 268 290 241 247 226 237 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 152 152 151 150 150 149 148 147 148 152 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 61 59 59 57 58 60 63 67 69 70 69 63 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 17 20 19 20 21 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 -9 -26 -44 -39 -52 -36 -19 4 22 38 36 41 45 57 61 200 MB DIV 49 28 16 6 3 5 2 33 25 38 5 26 5 15 -6 6 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -5 -1 1 0 1 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 987 986 987 979 975 938 923 936 970 1017 1073 1151 1218 1443 1871 1980 2079 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.7 168.0 168.3 168.5 168.7 168.7 168.7 168.9 169.3 169.8 170.4 171.2 171.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 7 14 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 51 59 61 59 48 44 41 39 40 43 49 41 26 39 48 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 10. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 25. 32. 37. 38. 37. 42. 42. 44. 47. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 167.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.7% 18.6% 10.6% 5.2% 8.7% 9.1% 8.3% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 2.9% 8.5% 2.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##