* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 33 33 35 37 39 43 46 50 53 56 58 60 62 65 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 33 33 35 37 38 40 43 47 50 53 55 57 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 29 28 27 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 9 14 16 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 244 255 231 221 238 224 242 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 146 148 145 145 152 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 142 143 145 140 139 147 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 6 14 12 4 6 -7 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 16 10 -3 -28 -18 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -7 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 552 484 356 240 124 109 2 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.3 60.6 61.9 63.2 64.5 67.0 69.5 71.9 74.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 43 29 28 32 56 41 36 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 59.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.6% 7.5% 5.6% 5.1% 7.7% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.2% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 2.9% 3.1% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/24/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 33 33 35 37 38 40 43 47 50 53 55 57 59 62 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 34 36 38 39 41 44 48 51 54 56 58 60 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 36 37 39 42 46 49 52 54 56 58 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 42 45 47 49 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT