* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 63 72 77 81 82 85 84 87 87 86 87 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 63 72 77 81 82 85 84 87 87 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 56 66 75 81 83 83 85 86 87 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 12 12 15 11 11 1 8 8 11 11 13 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 -4 -9 -3 -7 -4 -5 -1 2 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 353 358 2 360 10 10 42 278 258 259 248 279 319 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 151 150 148 147 148 148 148 147 145 148 151 148 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 69 67 68 65 64 64 65 62 62 65 62 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 16 19 20 22 22 23 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 41 37 26 20 -1 -31 -39 -37 -16 -1 10 52 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 52 54 61 54 49 26 24 5 20 19 18 2 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 948 953 962 946 932 883 822 762 703 652 609 581 552 999 1183 1289 1392 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 164.5 165.0 165.6 165.9 166.2 166.4 166.3 166.0 165.7 165.4 165.2 165.2 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 10 15 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 43 42 40 44 50 54 55 53 49 41 36 41 54 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 42. 47. 51. 52. 55. 54. 57. 57. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 164.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 6.5% 19.3% 9.9% 4.4% 7.5% 6.7% 29.6% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.4% 2.4% 0.6% 1.1% 3.9% 11.2% 5.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##