* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 39 40 42 45 47 52 55 58 61 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 39 40 42 37 37 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 36 34 33 29 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 18 14 21 19 23 15 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 233 246 251 236 241 255 255 262 257 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 30.2 29.6 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 148 146 146 151 172 162 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 142 142 145 143 141 144 166 152 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 37 38 39 39 38 37 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 4 -2 4 0 -1 -9 -42 -63 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 2 2 2 9 0 -7 0 7 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -9 -7 -4 -4 -4 1 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 613 579 578 445 313 111 49 -20 33 -41 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.5 60.8 62.1 63.4 66.0 68.5 71.0 73.2 75.2 77.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 56 39 29 29 45 49 37 61 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 58.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 5.2% 3.9% 3.2% 6.1% 7.1% 8.6% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 1.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 3.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 38 39 40 42 37 37 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 39 40 42 37 37 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 38 40 35 35 33 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 34 29 29 27 23 21 20 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT