* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 50 57 66 70 66 56 55 54 50 48 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 50 57 66 70 66 56 55 54 50 48 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 42 45 48 49 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 10 13 12 23 17 6 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 8 8 1 -4 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 301 298 284 279 269 227 205 351 335 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.5 25.7 24.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 156 152 150 146 140 122 109 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 59 62 66 63 52 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 15 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -13 -22 -29 -28 19 83 112 98 79 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 21 30 17 72 73 64 36 50 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 5 4 24 25 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2000 1982 1967 1916 1871 1760 1729 1802 2040 2397 2160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.4 25.3 27.5 29.9 32.6 35.5 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.4 179.4 179.3 178.9 178.4 177.1 176.2 175.9 177.0 179.3 181.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 44 38 31 23 22 9 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 10. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 22. 31. 35. 31. 21. 20. 19. 15. 13. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 179.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING