* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 41 43 45 47 50 55 58 60 62 63 63 65 65 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 41 43 40 39 39 44 46 49 51 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 38 36 32 31 32 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 20 19 19 19 18 17 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 228 229 240 243 232 252 256 275 252 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 145 145 145 148 150 148 154 154 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 142 142 141 143 144 141 146 144 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 39 40 39 40 38 36 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 2 2 -1 -7 -12 -21 -56 -66 -93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 12 -1 1 3 -9 -23 -11 2 1 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -8 -5 -1 0 0 -1 3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 716 653 617 581 440 176 -19 -3 11 69 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.7 58.0 59.3 60.6 61.9 64.4 66.9 69.3 71.7 73.9 76.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 43 50 40 30 35 57 58 43 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 56.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.6% 4.6% 3.5% 2.8% 6.0% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.6% 2.4% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 2.5% 3.2% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 40 41 43 40 39 39 44 46 49 51 52 52 53 53 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 42 44 41 40 40 45 47 50 52 53 53 54 54 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 43 40 39 39 44 46 49 51 52 52 53 53 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 35 34 34 39 41 44 46 47 47 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT