* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 61 66 70 69 63 59 52 50 48 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 61 66 70 69 63 59 52 50 48 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 53 57 57 54 49 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 11 13 9 10 14 28 16 6 14 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 -3 -2 4 2 2 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 293 278 293 288 279 240 226 220 261 319 295 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.8 26.9 25.5 24.9 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 157 158 155 146 142 133 119 113 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 55 55 58 63 69 65 59 55 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 9 12 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 6 -13 -25 -29 15 57 77 55 73 68 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -1 15 2 11 19 71 42 57 25 53 36 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 2 2 5 3 25 20 19 5 19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1983 1996 2013 1999 1989 1911 1809 1748 1805 1978 2190 2430 2261 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.5 23.3 25.3 27.5 29.6 31.8 33.9 35.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.9 179.2 179.5 179.5 179.5 178.8 177.6 176.4 176.1 176.8 177.9 179.4 180.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 42 45 45 38 24 25 10 7 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 4. 1. -0. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 34. 28. 24. 17. 15. 13. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 178.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 22.6% 38.5% 27.7% 20.3% 20.8% 20.8% 5.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.6% 2.1% 0.7% 2.5% 2.3% 0.4% 2.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##