* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 46 45 45 47 49 50 51 53 57 60 62 62 61 60 62 V (KT) LAND 55 49 46 45 45 47 49 50 51 53 57 60 62 62 61 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 47 42 40 39 37 36 36 36 36 37 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 15 17 16 18 19 18 16 15 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -5 -5 -2 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 241 240 225 223 229 215 230 218 246 241 283 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 136 138 142 145 148 151 151 152 152 156 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 133 133 134 137 140 143 145 143 143 140 143 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 15 14 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 37 38 40 39 40 39 38 43 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 5 3 -2 -10 -18 -22 -30 -61 -68 -70 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 10 10 -3 -3 -17 -18 -15 -10 -4 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -2 0 -3 3 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 917 826 750 697 670 431 154 33 33 56 139 137 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.4 56.7 58.0 59.3 61.8 64.3 66.8 69.2 71.5 73.5 75.3 77.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 22 26 33 41 33 41 70 78 46 49 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 531.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 5.6% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 49 46 45 45 47 49 50 51 53 57 60 62 62 61 60 62 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 50 52 54 55 56 58 62 65 67 67 66 65 67 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 52 54 55 56 58 62 65 67 67 66 65 67 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 49 50 51 53 57 60 62 62 61 60 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT