* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 38 44 54 57 61 60 54 45 41 39 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 38 44 54 57 61 60 54 45 41 39 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 28 29 32 35 38 39 37 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 12 13 7 11 18 27 16 9 22 26 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 4 2 -1 2 -3 -3 -3 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 301 286 280 295 275 257 231 233 224 321 311 311 180 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.8 25.7 24.6 10.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 158 156 152 147 141 132 121 118 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 55 54 56 59 63 66 62 61 61 52 68 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 9 9 11 10 7 3 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 7 -1 -16 -38 -27 14 41 57 28 45 32 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 15 -9 12 15 10 26 51 45 23 -1 43 33 78 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 4 4 0 2 5 25 17 11 25 15 79 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1950 1967 1986 1991 1999 1964 1862 1750 1700 1752 1915 2159 2405 573 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.6 22.1 23.6 25.3 27.2 29.4 31.7 33.9 36.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.4 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.5 179.3 178.3 177.0 176.0 175.6 176.1 177.5 178.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 51 86 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 41 42 46 46 32 23 24 11 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. -4. -8. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 24. 27. 31. 30. 24. 15. 11. 9. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 178.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.9% 4.4% 2.5% 2.5% 5.4% 3.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##