* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 62 60 59 58 58 56 57 60 63 67 66 66 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 70 65 62 60 59 58 58 56 57 60 63 67 66 66 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 58 56 55 52 50 49 49 50 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 17 18 21 14 21 15 17 12 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 228 236 240 223 234 235 231 247 243 250 249 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 135 136 138 143 146 148 151 153 151 155 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 131 132 133 138 141 141 144 145 141 144 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 35 35 37 39 40 41 40 41 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 17 11 -2 -3 -7 -12 -27 -24 -54 -71 -67 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 16 2 1 7 -13 2 -23 -15 1 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -5 -4 -1 0 -3 0 0 -2 0 2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 954 868 795 742 608 334 75 81 55 137 137 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.9 55.1 56.4 57.6 60.1 62.6 65.0 67.4 69.9 72.3 74.5 76.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 18 21 24 30 38 41 48 65 81 44 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -13. -10. -7. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.7 52.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 703.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.1% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 62 60 59 58 58 56 57 60 63 67 66 66 66 66 66 18HR AGO 70 69 66 64 63 62 62 60 61 64 67 71 70 70 70 70 70 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 62 62 60 61 64 67 71 70 70 70 70 70 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 58 56 57 60 63 67 66 66 66 66 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT