* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 31 40 48 54 57 60 62 66 69 73 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 31 40 48 54 57 60 62 66 69 73 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 30 34 38 44 51 57 62 64 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 12 11 9 10 7 6 8 16 17 12 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -5 -7 -3 -4 -1 1 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 32 7 353 321 328 360 356 6 347 303 262 266 270 267 328 327 303 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 155 154 154 151 150 151 152 153 153 152 148 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 66 66 70 72 71 70 69 70 68 68 64 66 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 16 17 19 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 67 49 38 34 30 9 4 -11 -19 -22 -8 7 29 32 43 47 70 200 MB DIV -1 -2 14 13 19 44 56 44 29 20 16 11 24 29 5 26 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 2 4 1 1 0 3 0 4 7 LAND (KM) 633 651 704 761 767 753 718 675 607 510 429 355 283 261 500 544 589 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.5 159.0 160.4 161.5 162.7 164.1 164.7 164.9 164.7 164.2 163.7 163.2 162.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 12 10 6 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 5 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 40 39 49 57 62 63 58 50 46 48 48 52 36 33 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 6. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 41. 44. 48. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 157.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 3.6% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##