* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 78 76 75 74 72 70 69 71 73 75 76 75 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 85 80 78 76 75 74 72 70 69 71 71 57 52 45 40 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 76 73 72 70 68 66 65 64 62 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 13 13 13 17 12 16 12 18 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 244 234 223 228 205 227 238 231 232 242 254 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 132 135 138 142 146 148 151 151 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 123 128 131 134 137 141 142 144 143 150 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 39 39 37 38 37 38 39 38 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 3 7 7 3 2 -13 -27 -23 -38 -41 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -1 3 -2 7 13 3 0 -25 -23 -4 -3 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 0 -5 -4 1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1110 1097 1048 950 861 723 613 350 87 35 11 14 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.5 52.6 53.8 55.0 57.6 60.1 62.5 64.9 67.3 69.7 72.2 74.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 17 21 30 39 37 44 65 71 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.0 50.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 767.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.4% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 5( 20) 5( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 78 76 75 74 72 70 69 71 71 57 52 45 40 37 34 18HR AGO 85 84 82 80 79 78 76 74 73 75 75 61 56 49 44 41 38 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 78 77 75 73 72 74 74 60 55 48 43 40 37 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 73 71 69 68 70 70 56 51 44 39 36 33 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 65 63 61 60 62 62 48 43 36 31 28 25 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT