* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 31 36 45 54 62 66 71 74 76 79 83 84 88 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 31 36 45 54 62 66 71 74 76 79 83 84 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 28 30 33 38 43 50 58 65 70 76 83 89 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 6 6 7 10 5 9 13 15 14 18 15 13 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 1 -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -7 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 49 32 345 325 295 333 312 312 296 273 255 260 259 276 261 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 155 155 152 150 152 154 155 154 149 141 148 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 67 66 69 74 74 74 74 75 78 74 70 61 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 13 15 15 17 19 22 24 27 30 32 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 61 50 41 32 27 21 9 3 13 28 36 52 55 74 83 200 MB DIV 42 40 28 34 44 40 52 60 42 24 44 40 24 45 27 -1 1 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 0 1 0 1 2 7 6 11 5 7 7 6 2 4 LAND (KM) 652 586 567 589 649 704 652 594 524 438 339 226 123 217 372 388 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.9 157.4 158.9 160.3 162.4 163.3 163.6 163.6 163.3 162.7 162.0 161.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 13 8 5 4 4 5 4 5 0 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 49 48 40 52 60 58 55 52 55 51 35 45 30 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 15. 24. 32. 36. 41. 44. 46. 49. 53. 54. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 154.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##