* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 91 88 85 80 76 72 70 68 67 66 68 68 71 73 73 V (KT) LAND 95 94 91 88 85 80 76 72 70 68 64 53 48 48 51 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 92 89 85 81 77 73 71 69 64 54 48 50 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 12 16 16 15 17 19 23 22 21 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 243 249 243 235 228 221 251 254 265 252 285 270 297 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 128 131 136 140 143 147 149 149 151 156 152 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 123 124 126 132 136 138 141 142 141 143 147 143 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 14 15 14 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 42 41 40 38 41 40 42 40 41 41 45 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 5 2 7 1 0 -7 -25 -20 -17 -25 -19 -35 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -1 0 -7 1 -13 -8 -24 -22 -22 -12 3 4 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 0 -4 0 -4 -1 -2 -1 -5 1 -2 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1114 1097 1093 1050 959 785 691 502 252 15 48 -33 17 49 45 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.3 51.4 52.5 53.7 56.2 58.7 61.1 63.4 65.6 67.9 70.1 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 12 14 17 24 39 34 41 54 59 58 45 55 48 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -21. -22. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -27. -27. -24. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.6 49.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 795.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.5% 5.9% 4.7% 1.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 10( 34) 7( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 91 88 85 80 76 72 70 68 64 53 48 48 51 53 53 18HR AGO 95 94 91 88 85 80 76 72 70 68 64 53 48 48 51 53 53 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 85 80 76 72 70 68 64 53 48 48 51 53 53 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 77 73 69 67 65 61 50 45 45 48 50 50 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 67 63 61 59 55 44 39 39 42 44 44 IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 73 69 65 63 61 57 46 41 41 44 46 46 IN 12HR 95 94 91 82 76 72 68 64 62 60 56 45 40 40 43 45 45