* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 38 40 44 50 57 63 65 68 72 73 72 73 75 77 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 38 40 44 50 57 63 65 68 72 73 72 73 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 55 59 64 69 74 75 75 77 81 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 8 8 5 7 5 7 10 17 18 24 21 11 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 46 35 9 1 316 299 305 285 267 259 239 258 254 263 272 290 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 155 155 152 150 151 154 154 152 146 142 149 152 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 66 66 67 72 75 73 72 71 72 70 67 63 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 14 16 19 21 21 21 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 66 52 43 24 15 18 12 12 12 29 30 39 53 53 63 200 MB DIV 28 29 20 30 27 44 62 55 31 35 27 45 22 17 29 8 29 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -1 1 3 2 2 4 5 6 4 4 4 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 755 651 580 559 580 655 610 504 416 336 255 181 130 176 373 349 368 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.6 154.2 155.7 157.2 158.6 160.9 162.1 162.3 162.3 162.2 162.0 161.7 161.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 15 14 10 6 5 4 4 4 4 1 5 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 31 46 51 41 51 51 54 57 56 42 32 45 45 35 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 22. 28. 30. 33. 37. 38. 37. 38. 40. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 152.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.9% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##