* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 99 94 90 80 76 70 67 65 62 60 61 64 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 100 102 99 94 90 80 76 70 67 65 59 51 49 52 55 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 101 96 91 83 77 72 68 65 54 60 51 54 58 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 15 16 16 16 19 15 15 16 21 17 18 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -1 2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 234 253 257 252 237 229 240 262 264 266 262 273 278 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 127 128 128 135 138 142 147 148 151 151 154 153 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 122 123 124 130 133 137 142 142 145 144 144 143 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 46 44 43 43 41 42 41 43 44 43 43 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 10 5 -2 -4 0 -3 -7 -11 -12 0 -7 -8 -14 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 5 8 4 2 -13 5 -21 -2 -11 -7 0 -1 23 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 4 1 -3 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 1 -1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1116 1100 1088 1085 1030 853 723 613 353 105 0 0 28 79 47 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.7 52.8 55.1 57.6 60.1 62.5 64.8 67.1 69.6 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 10 12 14 21 30 39 36 42 65 69 44 50 51 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -30. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -6. -10. -20. -24. -30. -33. -35. -38. -40. -39. -36. -32. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.3 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 797.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 10.4% 8.7% 6.1% 2.0% 5.1% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 12( 46) 7( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 99 94 90 80 76 70 67 65 59 51 49 52 55 57 56 18HR AGO 100 99 96 91 87 77 73 67 64 62 56 48 46 49 52 54 53 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 87 77 73 67 64 62 56 48 46 49 52 54 53 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 76 72 66 63 61 55 47 45 48 51 53 52 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 67 61 58 56 50 42 40 43 46 48 47 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 78 74 68 65 63 57 49 47 50 53 55 54 IN 12HR 100 102 99 90 84 80 76 70 67 65 59 51 49 52 55 57 56