* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 83 81 75 71 68 65 64 64 63 62 68 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 83 81 75 71 68 65 64 64 63 42 47 48 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 88 88 86 84 79 73 68 64 62 59 57 40 40 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 14 16 18 15 18 19 18 23 22 23 17 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 3 -1 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 268 265 266 258 251 247 238 240 249 265 258 275 257 300 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 127 128 132 136 141 145 148 151 151 158 172 172 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 122 122 124 127 132 137 141 143 145 144 152 167 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 13 14 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 46 44 42 42 39 39 38 40 40 41 44 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 3 1 -4 0 4 -4 -14 -10 0 0 -9 -3 -16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -3 4 7 4 2 -13 -33 -15 -3 10 -8 15 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 1 4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 -4 0 -4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1094 1085 1072 1072 917 755 655 451 179 0 22 -69 68 20 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.7 49.7 50.7 51.8 54.1 56.5 59.1 61.7 64.3 66.8 69.2 71.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 11 10 12 18 26 42 32 37 64 52 41 73 75 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -20. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -21. -22. -23. -17. -15. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 13.8 47.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 14.2% 10.1% 7.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 6.8% 5.2% 2.7% 0.8% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 6.8% 5.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 8.9% 6.2% 3.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 5( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 86 83 81 75 71 68 65 64 64 63 42 47 48 51 50 18HR AGO 85 84 83 80 78 72 68 65 62 61 61 60 39 44 45 48 47 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 76 70 66 63 60 59 59 58 37 42 43 46 45 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 67 63 60 57 56 56 55 34 39 40 43 42 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 56 53 50 49 49 48 27 32 33 36 35 IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 65 61 58 55 54 54 53 32 37 38 41 40 IN 12HR 85 87 86 77 71 67 63 60 57 56 56 55 34 39 40 43 42