* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 44 53 61 67 69 72 72 76 78 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 44 53 61 67 69 72 72 76 78 80 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 42 47 51 55 57 59 64 71 77 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 9 6 9 6 8 7 14 19 26 21 18 12 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 1 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 0 1 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 81 70 49 34 360 329 296 310 280 269 276 269 253 267 256 258 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 158 157 155 153 151 154 154 147 143 141 148 150 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 67 67 67 71 75 77 79 78 77 74 69 64 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 15 15 16 17 19 20 23 23 26 28 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 92 83 72 61 48 26 16 -3 6 8 9 16 35 26 40 50 74 200 MB DIV 76 50 26 23 40 23 67 58 63 70 78 40 49 48 42 32 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 3 5 9 11 15 7 4 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 935 819 718 641 595 575 609 502 391 270 158 58 30 203 484 524 581 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.7 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 159.0 160.8 161.7 162.0 161.7 161.2 160.7 160.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 6 5 5 5 4 11 8 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 30 27 34 46 41 45 53 56 42 32 26 28 33 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 23. 31. 37. 39. 42. 42. 46. 48. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 150.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 9.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 2.6% 4.6% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##