* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 75 75 73 71 68 66 65 66 65 64 63 66 68 71 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 75 75 73 71 68 66 65 66 65 57 47 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 75 75 73 71 68 65 62 60 59 59 45 39 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 3 6 13 15 12 16 17 15 18 18 22 18 21 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 190 338 312 274 247 264 251 242 230 249 256 270 263 283 279 310 300 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.0 30.1 29.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 125 126 127 133 139 142 143 148 149 147 152 171 162 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 117 120 121 123 129 135 137 139 142 142 140 144 163 152 164 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 14 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 50 47 45 41 42 39 38 38 41 41 43 46 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 15 10 11 2 6 2 0 -10 -9 -7 -6 -6 3 -2 12 200 MB DIV -13 -6 0 5 9 -7 -1 4 -24 -30 -10 -9 1 -21 6 -3 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 4 -2 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 0 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1148 1130 1120 1112 1105 1083 915 748 663 451 197 21 -8 -30 21 56 13 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.1 47.9 48.8 49.7 51.8 54.2 56.6 59.2 61.7 64.1 66.4 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 18 14 11 12 20 27 40 31 37 62 49 40 62 73 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -4. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.2 46.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 17.3% 11.8% 10.6% 8.4% 10.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 17.1% 17.2% 10.9% 3.6% 6.1% 1.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 3.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 12.5% 10.5% 7.2% 4.1% 5.5% 4.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) 4( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 75 75 73 71 68 66 65 66 65 57 47 41 43 46 18HR AGO 70 69 71 72 72 70 68 65 63 62 63 62 54 44 38 40 43 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 67 65 63 60 58 57 58 57 49 39 33 35 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 58 56 53 51 50 51 50 42 32 26 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT