* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 70 70 69 68 65 63 63 63 63 62 59 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 70 70 69 68 65 63 63 63 63 59 46 35 37 33 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 70 69 67 64 61 57 55 53 50 41 32 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 4 4 14 14 18 17 20 17 20 19 22 18 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 194 171 245 260 230 251 248 248 245 246 253 247 254 257 273 262 279 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.4 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 123 123 125 127 127 138 139 142 148 149 149 149 158 168 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 118 117 120 122 122 134 135 139 143 143 141 140 149 158 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 48 46 44 41 40 38 39 37 41 41 47 48 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 13 12 3 2 0 5 2 -2 -5 6 16 22 22 19 10 200 MB DIV -16 -14 -5 -9 0 11 14 0 -6 -29 -27 -6 7 11 0 3 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 0 1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1175 1155 1139 1128 1126 1098 1030 837 702 576 307 48 53 -39 -57 33 -15 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.1 46.9 47.8 48.6 50.6 52.8 55.3 57.8 60.5 63.0 65.5 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 20 19 15 10 14 24 31 35 36 50 57 53 44 66 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -17. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -5. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.8 45.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.96 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 17.7% 14.9% 10.5% 8.6% 10.4% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 14.7% 14.2% 6.8% 2.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 11.6% 10.8% 5.8% 3.6% 5.0% 4.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 70 70 69 68 65 63 63 63 63 59 46 35 37 33 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 68 67 66 63 61 61 61 61 57 44 33 35 31 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 63 62 61 58 56 56 56 56 52 39 28 30 26 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 54 53 50 48 48 48 48 44 31 20 22 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT