* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 69 64 58 49 42 36 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 69 64 58 49 42 36 31 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 69 64 59 49 42 35 30 25 23 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 28 32 34 34 36 35 35 39 45 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 264 269 268 268 263 251 245 242 246 255 248 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 138 139 137 136 135 134 137 143 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 64 63 62 64 68 69 68 69 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 6 2 -8 -7 2 7 -2 -3 -2 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 49 53 61 50 55 55 62 48 55 38 34 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 7 5 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 611 541 484 427 343 271 209 128 22 -7 104 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.0 150.6 151.0 151.4 152.0 152.5 153.0 153.7 154.7 155.9 157.4 158.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 24 22 25 25 28 30 27 22 17 25 24 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. -29. -33. -37. -39. -40. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -22. -31. -38. -44. -49. -54. -59. -63. -65. -67. -68. -69. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 149.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##