* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 73 70 62 54 52 46 39 35 27 26 25 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 73 70 62 54 52 46 39 35 25 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 70 66 58 51 45 39 33 28 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 16 19 26 24 30 32 35 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 247 261 259 249 264 249 239 244 245 254 257 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 142 140 141 139 138 136 135 135 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 65 66 63 63 62 64 65 63 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 19 19 18 16 17 14 13 12 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 23 23 22 19 18 19 18 10 3 -2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 52 61 75 94 70 66 66 51 14 22 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 2 5 8 8 5 3 4 2 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 879 792 705 638 570 476 400 334 254 177 81 -1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.6 149.3 149.8 150.2 150.8 151.3 151.8 152.5 153.2 154.1 155.1 156.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 33 32 25 22 22 26 30 30 26 21 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -11. -14. -14. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -23. -31. -33. -39. -46. -50. -58. -59. -60. -60. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.1 147.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.0% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##