* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 84 79 76 66 58 53 50 44 36 30 26 24 24 25 25 V (KT) LAND 95 89 84 79 76 66 58 53 50 44 36 30 24 25 25 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 95 88 81 76 72 63 55 49 42 36 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 14 18 21 25 28 30 32 34 38 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -2 4 2 3 2 5 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 241 250 256 261 258 254 241 244 249 263 255 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 142 140 140 139 138 136 135 136 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 66 65 64 63 64 62 62 63 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 16 18 16 15 14 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 36 27 23 13 10 20 11 10 2 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 61 55 68 68 77 57 41 41 24 12 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 2 7 6 2 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 978 879 780 703 627 519 443 374 301 232 146 45 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.8 148.6 149.2 149.7 150.4 150.9 151.4 152.0 152.6 153.4 154.4 155.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 26 34 32 25 21 24 27 30 27 23 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -30. -31. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -29. -37. -42. -45. -51. -59. -65. -69. -71. -71. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.8 147.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 12.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##