* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 107 101 88 75 66 61 51 43 33 26 24 23 25 26 V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 107 101 88 75 66 61 51 43 33 26 24 23 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 104 98 92 80 69 58 49 40 33 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 0 3 12 23 29 35 39 44 46 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 0 0 5 1 2 -1 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 343 4 244 248 259 254 250 245 253 250 262 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 139 139 140 140 139 138 134 133 133 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 60 64 63 61 58 59 58 59 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 19 18 18 15 14 15 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 39 27 29 23 11 11 22 10 14 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 55 49 60 65 71 71 53 31 29 4 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 4 8 10 8 4 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1182 1076 970 880 790 634 522 437 386 337 287 251 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.1 146.0 146.9 147.6 148.3 149.4 150.1 150.7 151.1 151.6 152.2 152.8 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 24 35 25 22 22 18 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -29. -37. -43. -48. -51. -52. -53. -54. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -13. -19. -25. -27. -28. -25. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -9. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -14. -27. -40. -49. -54. -64. -72. -82. -89. -91. -92. -90. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 145.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 5.5% 3.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##