* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 62 68 71 72 72 70 69 67 64 58 52 45 37 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 62 68 71 72 72 70 69 67 64 58 52 45 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 60 64 71 76 79 78 75 71 66 60 53 46 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 7 7 2 5 7 12 13 17 25 35 38 45 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 -1 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 81 76 58 56 66 326 314 313 270 260 240 250 251 261 254 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 144 144 140 136 135 135 134 130 132 134 134 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 62 62 62 57 55 53 53 56 59 58 56 55 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 32 27 24 28 22 35 28 24 10 11 12 21 26 25 17 200 MB DIV 4 10 14 24 35 18 18 32 28 27 24 36 42 39 20 8 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 2 1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 2467 2356 2246 2134 2023 1792 1557 1319 1121 954 794 634 482 362 295 282 271 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.8 133.9 134.9 136.0 137.0 139.1 141.2 143.3 145.0 146.3 147.6 148.9 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 8 7 8 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 20 22 22 12 13 12 14 15 24 20 9 10 13 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -9. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 23. 26. 27. 27. 25. 24. 22. 19. 13. 7. 0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.7 132.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 36.8% 28.4% 20.7% 14.9% 30.9% 32.8% 17.8% Logistic: 22.4% 56.7% 33.7% 27.8% 12.5% 34.8% 21.3% 7.0% Bayesian: 3.7% 51.0% 8.6% 2.9% 7.8% 9.9% 4.3% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 48.2% 23.6% 17.1% 11.7% 25.2% 19.4% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##