* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 35 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 35 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 34 31 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 43 42 44 45 45 43 48 42 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 -3 -3 2 4 1 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 254 258 258 257 257 260 268 270 282 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 137 136 137 140 139 136 136 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 45 45 47 48 48 47 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 13 9 1 -8 -11 -17 -18 -29 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -17 -14 -6 -2 4 10 -7 -3 -19 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 2 2 4 7 6 7 4 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 312 263 209 183 163 219 417 644 886 1137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.3 24.0 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.9 153.9 155.0 156.1 158.3 160.5 162.7 164.9 167.2 169.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 13 11 17 14 14 8 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -23. -35. -46. -53. -58. -60. -63. -67. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -14. -20. -29. -38. -48. -55. -58. -60. -62. -64. -68. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 151.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##