* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 47 46 42 39 35 32 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 47 46 42 39 35 32 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 42 38 34 31 28 26 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 25 24 22 28 32 43 39 46 40 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 5 3 3 1 0 1 4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 280 282 276 267 259 246 251 253 260 261 265 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 135 131 133 137 137 135 135 140 137 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 60 59 58 55 53 52 51 50 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 20 19 18 19 16 16 16 16 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 20 27 37 30 36 14 15 -2 2 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 11 0 -1 30 34 38 15 19 24 26 -2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 14 11 8 10 7 8 11 6 5 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 842 748 656 561 470 305 209 171 200 266 409 601 802 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.8 148.6 149.5 150.3 152.1 154.0 155.9 157.9 159.8 161.9 164.2 166.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 14 17 12 7 10 13 13 13 10 15 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -27. -34. -39. -44. -46. -49. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -29. -33. -35. -38. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 147.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##