* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 86 82 79 72 65 61 56 56 55 51 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 90 88 86 82 79 72 65 61 56 56 55 51 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 83 78 73 65 58 53 49 49 48 45 42 40 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 15 12 15 14 16 13 19 18 28 33 35 31 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 3 8 5 2 -2 0 0 3 4 0 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 276 285 294 307 301 297 291 289 255 257 244 250 248 263 264 264 264 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 142 138 136 137 138 138 137 138 137 138 138 141 140 140 141 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 67 66 67 66 63 62 61 60 56 53 51 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 19 20 19 18 16 14 15 14 12 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 0 6 9 21 29 27 35 29 20 -2 -27 -33 -44 -49 -52 200 MB DIV 35 8 14 30 32 16 25 5 17 33 52 26 4 3 0 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 12 13 10 7 7 6 3 0 4 3 5 4 3 -4 -4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1649 1530 1411 1304 1197 1015 843 676 508 348 189 77 15 9 241 500 768 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.5 142.6 143.5 144.4 145.9 147.3 148.7 150.1 151.5 153.0 154.7 156.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 14 13 12 10 12 18 17 17 15 13 13 15 12 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -10. -11. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -18. -25. -29. -34. -34. -35. -39. -43. -46. -48. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.8 140.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 15.4% 14.9% 11.2% 8.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 10.1% 3.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 9.4% 6.1% 4.5% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##