* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 83 80 72 65 60 57 54 51 50 47 43 40 38 33 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 83 80 72 65 60 57 54 51 50 47 43 40 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 83 78 73 64 57 52 49 47 46 45 43 41 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 16 12 17 16 16 17 15 22 25 35 38 42 41 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 8 5 8 4 2 0 -2 1 1 4 0 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 295 295 304 312 313 304 302 289 284 257 266 254 257 260 271 266 271 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 141 138 135 137 138 137 137 137 139 135 136 138 143 134 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 69 71 69 68 68 67 64 62 59 55 53 52 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 0 -3 4 18 21 32 31 40 31 26 -3 -10 -23 -34 -49 200 MB DIV 45 34 4 13 26 -2 8 7 11 35 37 47 5 -6 0 -13 -23 700-850 TADV 17 13 11 7 6 4 3 1 2 2 1 5 -1 -1 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1752 1625 1498 1394 1290 1096 934 791 625 449 271 126 56 54 68 138 301 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.7 141.8 142.7 143.6 145.2 146.5 147.7 149.1 150.6 152.2 153.9 155.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 13 13 10 10 14 18 17 15 14 14 10 11 21 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -18. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. -40. -43. -47. -50. -52. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.7 139.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 16.9% 15.2% 11.3% 9.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 13.6% 3.9% 2.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 11.7% 6.5% 4.7% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##