* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 86 84 78 75 72 69 68 67 65 62 54 50 47 42 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 86 84 78 75 72 69 68 67 65 62 54 50 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 84 80 76 69 64 61 60 59 58 56 53 47 43 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 9 7 10 10 12 12 14 16 26 32 43 42 42 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 8 8 7 3 1 0 1 1 4 5 4 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 287 295 298 280 293 288 312 272 282 266 267 258 265 259 269 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 150 145 135 135 137 139 136 137 137 139 136 137 144 137 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 72 72 72 73 69 68 65 61 60 59 54 50 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 22 22 22 23 22 20 21 21 20 19 15 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -8 0 5 8 34 34 47 56 46 34 33 6 10 3 -4 200 MB DIV 45 24 26 30 21 41 15 23 15 16 24 21 24 -11 3 2 -18 700-850 TADV 18 15 11 10 5 4 7 8 10 10 8 10 9 1 1 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 2039 1883 1729 1599 1470 1242 1064 910 740 557 387 237 145 79 57 102 325 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.8 138.2 139.6 140.8 141.9 143.9 145.4 146.7 148.1 149.6 151.1 152.6 154.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 22 16 16 15 11 9 10 16 16 15 13 12 14 9 22 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -25. -28. -36. -40. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.3 136.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 18.7% 17.3% 13.0% 10.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 17.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 15.1% 8.1% 5.7% 3.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##