* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 85 90 91 90 85 80 74 70 67 65 63 60 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 70 79 85 90 91 90 85 80 74 70 67 65 63 60 57 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 80 86 89 88 84 76 69 64 59 57 58 58 56 52 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 13 15 16 11 7 5 10 12 15 18 21 28 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 7 0 -4 -2 0 2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 332 293 292 271 273 288 292 300 255 280 258 252 244 258 258 265 256 SST (C) 28.7 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 160 160 156 154 144 141 141 137 137 136 136 135 136 140 141 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 68 67 69 71 74 75 72 69 67 66 64 62 58 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -5 -8 -4 -8 3 11 31 40 48 43 47 44 32 20 17 200 MB DIV 102 100 97 91 66 49 48 50 32 24 29 48 45 19 6 -19 28 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 13 15 16 13 10 7 3 2 2 8 10 7 10 4 LAND (KM) 2411 2499 2490 2320 2150 1856 1612 1389 1195 1022 849 672 495 326 164 77 37 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.4 132.9 134.4 135.9 138.5 140.6 142.5 144.2 145.7 147.2 148.7 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 35 38 31 31 15 9 14 15 10 10 17 15 15 15 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 20. 21. 20. 15. 10. 4. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.0 129.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 15.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 12.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 76.3% 70.3% 64.9% 62.8% 50.0% 33.8% 16.8% 12.8% Logistic: 78.8% 82.9% 74.6% 71.4% 34.6% 53.1% 12.8% 5.3% Bayesian: 84.4% 88.0% 89.5% 89.4% 55.5% 40.2% 5.0% 0.0% Consensus: 79.9% 80.4% 76.3% 74.5% 46.7% 42.4% 11.5% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##