* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 54 64 71 73 73 72 70 67 68 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 54 64 71 73 73 72 70 67 68 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 57 62 63 61 57 53 51 50 49 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 13 11 8 10 11 7 11 8 10 11 16 21 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 2 5 5 4 8 5 3 1 1 3 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 8 360 4 7 3 355 305 317 315 321 299 297 270 276 265 265 265 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 153 151 153 154 155 149 144 139 136 133 131 133 135 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 71 70 70 72 75 76 78 77 76 71 70 66 61 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 21 22 22 21 21 21 20 21 21 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 13 8 4 6 9 -2 4 16 28 27 34 35 38 34 34 200 MB DIV 152 136 123 107 95 79 93 69 55 18 26 39 38 38 31 26 13 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -6 -3 7 13 10 10 11 10 10 7 11 14 5 2 LAND (KM) 2324 2371 2427 2503 2586 2368 2039 1746 1488 1279 1116 986 886 784 638 466 350 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.2 11.3 12.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.1 128.4 129.9 131.3 134.4 137.3 139.9 142.1 143.8 145.0 145.9 146.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 16 14 13 11 8 7 6 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 38 20 17 19 27 34 15 12 15 11 7 5 8 13 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 38. 38. 37. 35. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.3 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 26.5% 23.9% 18.0% 12.8% 20.9% 29.9% 43.8% Logistic: 6.2% 37.6% 20.2% 10.8% 7.0% 22.1% 40.4% 51.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 27.6% 31.4% 7.1% 0.5% 13.4% 18.5% 67.8% Consensus: 6.6% 30.6% 25.2% 12.0% 6.8% 18.8% 29.6% 54.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##