* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP072015 07/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 45 54 63 67 69 68 67 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 45 54 63 67 69 68 67 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 38 41 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 25 24 21 19 12 8 7 11 9 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 3 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 40 38 39 34 13 352 331 324 322 343 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.1 27.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 160 157 156 152 152 155 152 146 135 133 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 73 70 69 66 63 62 63 63 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 11 13 14 16 18 21 23 23 22 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -14 -22 -27 -29 -28 -25 -32 -32 -37 -39 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 65 65 64 50 29 57 46 41 5 -10 0 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 879 876 885 916 955 993 1002 1002 1014 1037 1052 1117 1165 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.5 114.6 115.6 116.8 118.1 119.6 121.3 122.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 48 38 35 37 40 31 32 22 17 6 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 14. 15. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 20. 29. 38. 42. 44. 43. 42. 43. 44. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING