* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 18 19 17 12 13 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 198 207 216 216 213 209 216 243 246 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 105 105 105 105 105 103 102 102 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 36 36 34 32 27 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 39 41 40 37 30 9 -5 -17 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 -22 -17 -8 -19 -7 -28 -17 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 3 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1860 1839 1818 1813 1809 1829 1850 1861 1843 1798 1758 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.2 137.4 137.5 137.5 137.3 137.1 137.0 137.2 137.7 138.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. -42. -45. -46. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##