* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 38 34 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 12 16 13 21 28 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 42 355 343 356 324 294 268 259 238 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.1 23.9 23.1 22.3 22.4 21.8 21.3 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 101 93 85 86 79 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 59 55 49 47 42 39 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 21 19 16 13 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 72 65 60 41 20 12 9 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 4 -12 -6 11 -6 -16 -7 -16 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 0 6 2 10 6 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 530 554 591 615 604 555 572 553 509 482 462 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.8 23.5 25.4 27.4 29.3 30.3 30.6 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.0 118.7 119.9 120.9 121.8 122.2 122.3 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 7 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -12. -18. -19. -21. -22. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -20. -23. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -32. -42. -53. -63. -75. -78. -81. -84. -87. -92. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.2 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##