* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 89 83 73 62 50 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 89 83 73 62 50 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 96 90 84 78 67 57 46 37 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 15 13 20 22 30 27 25 25 25 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 2 2 2 5 2 4 1 -1 2 0 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 150 130 62 48 31 27 11 354 334 297 283 270 257 249 248 240 243 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.3 24.7 22.9 23.2 23.2 22.7 21.9 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 128 128 125 115 110 91 94 94 88 79 75 77 79 84 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 61 59 54 53 50 49 50 47 40 37 32 26 22 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 36 33 31 32 29 27 24 20 17 15 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 53 71 82 76 69 76 80 63 34 16 -3 8 28 34 19 14 14 200 MB DIV 45 38 59 40 -5 0 -6 15 -3 0 -10 -1 -3 -16 -13 -13 -1 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 1 -1 11 3 6 1 -4 -4 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 392 400 424 468 493 549 611 612 608 653 660 612 602 652 726 813 893 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.4 22.4 23.8 25.4 27.2 28.7 29.8 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.8 114.6 116.2 117.7 119.2 120.5 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 5 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -30. -38. -45. -51. -57. -62. -67. -72. -76. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -11. -17. -27. -38. -50. -61. -72. -83. -92. -99.-105.-112.-118.-124. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.7 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##