* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 12 12 15 16 16 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 2 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 256 231 201 200 193 198 203 208 205 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 112 109 108 107 108 108 109 108 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 45 42 39 38 36 32 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 55 50 49 42 52 44 45 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 22 11 0 4 -20 -12 -26 -2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 6 6 5 1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2126 2067 2008 1960 1913 1829 1788 1778 1768 1768 1769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.0 135.6 136.0 136.5 137.3 137.7 137.8 137.9 137.9 137.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -33. -34. -34. -35. -35. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 134.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##