* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 27 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 10 9 11 14 16 16 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 254 256 233 201 202 195 202 201 214 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 114 110 107 104 105 105 106 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 47 44 40 37 37 33 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 17 17 14 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 59 56 51 41 46 43 39 45 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 20 27 20 10 9 -2 -11 -18 -15 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 7 6 6 4 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2146 2136 2071 2017 1965 1871 1808 1787 1777 1767 1767 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.4 135.0 135.5 136.0 136.9 137.5 137.7 137.8 137.9 137.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -22. -28. -32. -34. -34. -35. -36. -36. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##