* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 10 14 17 16 18 19 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 2 0 -1 0 0 6 6 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 232 230 232 221 216 202 216 199 198 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 111 108 104 104 106 106 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 46 44 38 35 34 32 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 58 53 54 50 41 57 46 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 31 21 4 -2 -14 -2 -10 -6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 9 7 5 1 0 -6 -3 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2101 2141 2113 2054 1996 1902 1839 1798 1788 1800 1812 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.0 134.6 135.2 135.7 136.6 137.2 137.6 137.7 137.6 137.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -26. -32. -37. -40. -41. -42. -43. -44. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 133.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##