* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 107 106 98 90 84 76 72 63 57 54 50 46 39 35 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 107 106 98 90 84 76 72 63 57 54 50 46 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 104 101 98 91 83 75 68 60 51 43 38 34 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 6 7 7 14 12 13 10 8 3 5 9 16 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 296 2 149 136 132 75 58 53 32 18 345 326 298 260 263 269 N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.5 26.6 25.8 24.9 23.5 22.8 23.5 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 142 138 135 138 129 121 111 97 90 97 91 91 88 89 89 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 67 66 60 61 58 56 54 55 53 53 49 49 43 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 37 39 38 37 38 36 38 36 34 33 31 29 26 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 67 76 78 87 103 117 115 100 90 84 38 14 15 19 14 N/A 200 MB DIV 84 69 63 44 50 22 3 -3 4 -14 9 3 -4 5 -10 -15 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 5 6 4 3 1 N/A LAND (KM) 490 465 450 456 474 564 637 717 813 843 893 962 1034 1026 1028 1068 1121 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.9 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.9 111.5 112.2 112.9 114.4 116.0 117.7 119.4 121.0 122.6 124.1 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 7 5 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -28. -36. -44. -52. -57. -61. -65. -69. -74. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 3. -0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -20. -26. -34. -38. -47. -53. -56. -60. -64. -71. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.5 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 15.2% 14.7% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.6% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##