* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 34 32 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 34 32 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 33 31 27 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 11 10 16 14 17 17 21 18 17 11 12 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 4 2 0 -1 1 1 7 6 5 0 -2 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 236 231 232 213 218 207 211 196 202 187 175 145 125 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.1 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 114 115 112 104 104 105 106 108 107 108 108 107 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 50 46 40 37 33 33 31 29 25 26 28 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 51 57 52 50 45 46 47 53 64 59 54 76 132 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 0 30 21 4 -15 3 -5 -1 -7 13 -7 -9 -28 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 9 9 7 4 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2056 2094 2133 2123 2059 1944 1871 1818 1798 1800 1812 1834 1844 1844 1855 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.6 19.3 19.2 19.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.1 136.2 136.9 137.4 137.6 137.6 137.5 137.3 137.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -24. -31. -37. -40. -43. -44. -46. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##