* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 74 83 92 108 111 110 109 102 95 84 76 67 64 59 50 V (KT) LAND 60 66 74 83 92 108 111 110 109 102 95 84 76 67 64 59 50 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 74 80 94 106 113 113 104 94 82 71 61 54 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 12 9 4 7 6 6 6 9 8 8 4 5 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 278 306 309 337 54 4 48 93 137 77 99 61 61 330 278 275 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.1 24.2 23.0 23.3 23.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 163 160 159 157 153 146 132 125 120 113 104 92 95 97 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 73 75 72 69 67 67 59 61 58 56 50 48 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 26 30 30 32 37 37 38 36 35 34 34 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 13 11 13 33 42 62 72 89 87 102 96 92 88 91 63 200 MB DIV 76 87 92 69 83 71 40 65 50 50 4 7 -5 4 8 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 7 8 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 -3 1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 270 286 314 350 390 443 488 433 402 433 469 519 611 641 691 794 844 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.1 109.0 109.9 110.9 112.0 113.3 114.7 116.2 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 33 28 25 19 14 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 24. 25. 26. 22. 19. 15. 14. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 24. 23. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 32. 48. 51. 50. 49. 42. 35. 24. 16. 7. 4. -1. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 105.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 63.1% 42.7% 26.9% 22.1% 36.2% 26.2% 16.1% Logistic: 23.3% 52.9% 31.1% 15.7% 18.4% 18.6% 4.5% 4.2% Bayesian: 5.7% 40.1% 25.8% 16.8% 7.4% 25.0% 11.2% 0.4% Consensus: 17.7% 52.0% 33.2% 19.8% 16.0% 26.6% 13.9% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##