* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 42 43 44 44 41 39 36 33 30 26 24 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 42 43 44 44 41 39 36 33 30 26 24 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 43 42 39 35 31 28 25 23 20 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 3 6 8 14 17 14 14 14 15 18 23 26 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 0 1 -1 1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 25 42 77 162 199 199 182 204 200 209 189 189 181 178 173 159 129 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 135 137 134 135 122 119 121 118 115 115 117 119 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 63 60 58 56 57 55 53 50 46 41 35 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 95 80 71 68 62 48 49 46 54 58 64 56 70 70 67 64 68 200 MB DIV 86 52 38 41 27 1 -9 -14 0 11 -5 -2 3 0 -12 -15 -23 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 2 2 0 0 -5 -5 -8 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 1821 1844 1856 1878 1903 1970 2060 2147 2168 2059 1973 1931 1931 1954 1997 2052 2095 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.4 128.1 128.8 130.2 131.7 133.0 134.2 135.2 136.0 136.4 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 21 15 13 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.5% 22.4% 17.2% 12.1% 18.0% 14.9% 12.5% Logistic: 3.4% 12.3% 5.9% 3.9% 0.6% 4.4% 5.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 12.5% 9.7% 7.1% 4.2% 7.5% 6.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##