* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 55 62 70 83 94 98 99 96 96 92 85 79 75 70 66 V (KT) LAND 45 49 55 62 70 83 94 98 99 96 96 92 85 79 75 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 60 72 86 98 103 103 101 95 87 81 73 64 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 13 11 10 8 9 9 6 5 8 11 8 7 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -6 -7 -7 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 -2 2 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 206 252 288 295 299 322 324 342 339 331 2 50 70 62 57 44 N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.7 26.7 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 162 158 152 148 143 134 129 129 119 115 111 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 78 80 76 73 71 72 73 70 68 67 64 56 50 42 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 21 24 25 31 34 37 37 41 41 40 37 36 32 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 -3 0 9 17 30 41 51 85 107 114 121 137 138 104 N/A 200 MB DIV 85 113 63 68 88 63 99 65 76 49 64 21 24 23 11 -15 N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 1 N/A LAND (KM) 264 253 253 263 280 314 356 402 455 407 401 447 530 583 640 721 777 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.1 105.8 107.1 108.0 108.9 109.7 110.7 111.8 113.0 114.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 40 41 41 33 23 17 12 8 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 13. 20. 27. 27. 31. 30. 25. 20. 17. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 25. 38. 49. 53. 54. 51. 51. 47. 40. 34. 30. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 102.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -50.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.97 -6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 48.4% 31.4% 21.3% 15.3% 36.1% 40.5% 32.6% Logistic: 4.1% 21.6% 9.0% 2.9% 2.7% 6.9% 22.6% 24.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 26.0% 17.8% 7.4% 1.2% 3.8% 3.3% 18.3% Consensus: 6.9% 32.0% 19.4% 10.5% 6.4% 15.6% 22.1% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##