* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 52 53 54 54 55 55 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 52 53 54 54 55 55 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 41 44 48 53 58 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 10 10 9 6 9 11 14 12 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 123 119 126 130 103 92 46 68 52 68 32 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 135 138 138 141 143 143 143 145 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 54 52 53 52 53 54 53 50 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 39 39 41 41 53 38 36 30 26 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 13 6 3 -5 -34 -11 -11 2 -9 -2 -27 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 630 708 775 820 949 1117 1301 1487 1659 1838 2000 2158 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.4 160.3 161.2 162.1 163.0 164.9 166.9 168.9 170.9 172.8 174.7 176.5 178.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 10 17 38 35 34 33 24 40 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 159.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.6% 4.3% 3.3% 1.6% 4.3% 4.3% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##