* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 56 62 67 67 64 60 59 59 60 60 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 56 62 67 67 64 60 59 59 60 60 61 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 54 58 62 65 65 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 15 20 9 6 9 8 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 3 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 329 341 341 354 16 320 274 252 250 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 154 153 148 148 148 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 66 66 68 65 67 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 86 85 91 108 108 86 81 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 29 19 52 68 65 50 46 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -5 0 3 5 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2139 2220 2305 2389 2476 2662 2858 2804 2550 2310 2065 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.7 177.8 178.9 180.0 181.1 183.4 185.7 188.1 190.4 192.6 194.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 39 48 64 57 45 58 29 36 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 22. 22. 19. 15. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.8 176.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 18.8% 35.7% 17.9% 11.8% 11.0% 7.4% 8.9% 14.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 36.7% 8.5% 3.6% 3.4% 31.4% 66.9% 7.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##