* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 43 46 47 47 48 49 50 51 54 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 43 46 47 47 48 49 50 51 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 37 40 44 46 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 10 8 7 5 15 16 18 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 0 -2 -6 -6 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 108 110 96 90 106 78 3 16 25 43 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 137 133 137 139 139 138 140 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 62 59 55 49 50 49 48 47 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 24 15 12 28 24 32 35 30 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 10 19 15 17 -10 -36 -34 -6 -16 -11 -9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 2 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 715 658 608 585 576 633 766 869 976 1112 1269 1441 1615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.2 155.8 156.4 157.2 157.9 159.5 161.3 163.2 165.2 167.2 169.2 171.2 173.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 16 31 33 9 9 18 37 28 31 49 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 155.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.1% 2.4% 1.5% 0.8% 3.2% 1.6% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##